Systems Thinking.

(Originally published in FMR’s Opus Magazine, May 2024).

The psychologist Daniel Kahneman recently died aged 90. He won the 2002 Nobel prize for economics, but about the subject he described himself as “mostly cheering … from the sidelines”. He achieved celebrity status in 2011 at the age of 77, and after a lifetime of rigorous academic research with the pop psychology book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

I found Thinking, Fast and Slow very useful for my work in aviation human factors training. Kahneman’s work revealed the extent to which human beings make erroneous judgments in everyday situations and then base often wrong decisions on those judgments. Steven Pinker had called him “the world’s most influential living psychologist”.

One of his first insights came when he was trying to persuade flight instructors that reward was more effective than punishment when training people in new skills. Old-school flight training was pretty much a case of beating discipline into the “stupid” pupil pilot’s head!

Thinking, Fast and Slow proposed that we apprehend the world in two radically opposed ways, employing two fundamentally different modes of thought: “System 1” and “System 2”.

System 1 is fast; it’s intuitive, associative, metaphorical, automatic, impressionistic, and it can’t be switched off. Its operations involve no sense of intentional control, but it’s the “secret author of many of the choices and judgments you make”.

System 2 is slow, deliberate, effortful. Its operations require attention. System 2 takes over, rather unwillingly, when things get difficult.

Gary Klein is another American psychologist I often referred to in human factors training; he developed an aviation decision making model for the US Federal Aviation Administration, based on –what appeared to be – very fast, almost instinctive decision making by pilots. Turns out that, with loads of experience, what appears to be “fast” thinking is actually “applied slow thinking”.

Referring back to last month’s story about the buckets of luck and experience, it reminded me of Gary Player’s famous quote “the harder you work, the luckier you get”.

With pilots, a feat that could look like sheer blind luck would actually be the result of years of slog, training and hard work – lots of System 2 influencing System 1 to make the correct judgement call, leading to the correct decision.

Which is why experienced broadcasters can “think on their feet” when faced with a timing problem or technical dilemma. It may look like fast thinking, but stemming from years of experience (“slow thinking”), it becomes almost intuitive, and muscle memory.

At FMR we often field approaches by would-be presenters, but once in the unforgiving studio environment, faced with the technical challenges and the prospect of actually committing to a regular daily or weekly slot – the confidence and enthusiasm evaporates very quickly.

Believe me, we are very lucky to have very experienced people on air at FMR, and even “luckier” to have these experienced people prepared to share their time, knowledge and experience with our new prospects.

Being new on air is very much a sink-or-swim situation, but we have enough strong hands on deck to help you to stay afloat and breathe, while learning to make those instantaneous decisions!

If you have the inclination to volunteer at FMR, give it a try – in particular we’re looking for contributors to our community programmes.

If you think you have the grit and determination to volunteer, contact us on auditions@fmr.co.za.

It’s incredibly hard work to provide the calm in chaos, but it’s equally rewarding!

50 Days and Counting

“I’m gonna give you Forty Days” sang Cliff Richard all those years ago. But we have not made it back yet – and forty days have come and gone.

Cliff

Fifty days – that’s how long we’ve now been under lockdown in South Africa.

For aircrew this could spell a multitude of problems, not least of which is the fact that most pilots and cabin crew are currently on unpaid leave. This loss of income has severe ramifications for many and it cannot be sustained for much longer.

That aside – despite the SACAA’s extension of licenses and ratings to the end of June, other implications could be as severe.

Among these is the requirement for recency and currency –  some airlines require a check-flight after 30 days without flying. Problem is, check-captains and instructors need the same, so they would have to regain currency in the simulator before doing any check-flying.

This may not be as easy as it sounds – we currently have no idea when flying will be allowed again and at what level. We can only assume that moving to Level 3 restrictions would allow for training and very restricted flights. But, should the nightly 20h00 – 05h00 curfew remain in place, (which appears to be the case under Level 3 restrictions), just imagine trying to schedule all training only during daylight hours – bearing in mind travel time before and after such simulator sessions. For airlines without their own simulators, finding and hiring time on simulators may initially be almost impossible – potentially delaying their return to training. Remember that the closed borders currently restrict international travel, which means that only local simulators (of which there are not that many) may be available.

Hopefully the restrictions on flying and flight training will not last another 40 days, at which stage the 90 day recency and currency regulations would mean that every airline pilot would have to do a simulator session before even touching an aircraft.

When we finally do start flying, albeit limited in frequency and routes, stored aircaft would have to be brought out of mothballs, checked, signed out and possibly test flown before doing any commercial flights. This could turn into a lengthy process.

Looking at IATA’s projections for the recovery of commercial aviation, we’re in for a long and slow recovery.

Interestingly enough, IATA proposes that social distancing would be impossible on aircraft. While we know that aircraft aircon systems use HEPA filters, which are similar to those used in hospital operating theatres, it appears that the travelling public is quite suspicious of its efficiency.

What is clear is that for the foreseeable future airline flying will never be the same again.

Sanitising and deep cleaning between flights will become routine, adding time and costs. Wearing of face-masks in airports and on aircraft may become compulsory – crews may look like ICU nurses.

PPE
Phillipines cabin crew in their designer PPE wear.

During flight, passengers’ movement could be restricted – you may well have to “reserve a slot” to use the toilet…

Catering could be another no-no, especially on shorter flights – locally the longest flights are only two hours in duration. On longer flights catering could be pre-packaged and sealed – fancy first-class fare could well be a thing of the past.

Eventually it would boil down to passengers being adult and taking responsibility for their own protection and health.

As for how – and more importantly, when we can expect to get airborne again – the mixed and opaque messages from goverment are not particularly helpful in this regard.

Play it by ear is the only song on our current aviation hit parade – and we’re in it for The long Run!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘Pilots are losing their basic flying skills’

We’ve heard this argument many times over the past decades. The concept states that automation has made flying safer, but that it has reduced pilots to computer operators, who can no longer hand-fly their aircraft.

It has now surfaced again in the aftermath of the two deadly Max crashes – raised here in this USA Today article . One of the very experienced pilots quoted in the article is John Cox, who argues that training should concentrate more on manual flying skills than what currently is the case.

I found that this may well link to a recent article published by Flight Safety Australia, summarising the final report on the crash of a Diamond DA40 in September 2017. At issue here is the fact that the DA40 is not approved for intentional spins – and the instructor and student were killed when they spun in.

Now – when we talk about flying skills, initial training teaches the basics required to take off and land, fly straight and level, climb and descend and to turn the aircraft. There are lessons on stalling and then incipient spins – but it would appear that most of the new LSA (Light Sport Aircraft) often used as trainers are not approved for spins or even incipient spins.

Most of the older, more traditional all-metal trainers (before them even the rag-and-tube aircraft) were approved for spinning and spins used to be part of the training curriculum. But this changed a quite while ago, when the FAA and then our local CAA decided that pilots don’t need spin training: If they understood what the causes of spins are, they would avoid spins – that’s if I understand the logic of their decisions correctly.

How does this have any bearing on crashing airliners?

A recurring theme in recent crash investigations appears to be a dearth of experience in the cockpit. I’m not inferring that lack of experience points to crash-prone pilots – far from it. But it does indicate that most of the newer pilots would have been trained under the new regulations, which do not require spinning. This leads me to suspect that most of these newer pilots have never had any proper unusual attitude and recovery training – in simple terms it points to a lack of hands-on flying experience. Not their fault, but that of a system that allows young instructors – who themselves have never spun an aircraft and are actually afraid of simple stalls – to teach our future airline pilots. (Back to the point raised in the USA Today article).

When I was still involved in ab-initio training, (many moons ago) some of the younger instructors would ask me to take their students for the lessons on stalls and incipient spins. (My aerobatic background apparently made me the obvious candidate). My answer would be to rather take the instructor up to experience the joy of flying an aircraft to any attitude and still remain in control – but time and money did not always allow.

Added to this, the prohibition of spins in modern “glass” aircraft remains a serious hurdle. Even the great Cirrus range of aircraft, in which many new South African pilots are being trained, is not certified for spins.

The answer would be for any student to spend some money and time on unusual attitude training in a spin-capable aircraft. This would probably have to be an aerobatic machine, but such courses are available. Those hands-on skills will enhance their flying and build confidence.

That confidence could serve pilots well when, in their later careers they’re suddenly faced with an unusual situation. Airline training simply teaches procedures, which work extremely well – but for those unexpected upsets, nothing beats simple stick-and-rudder skills.

Featured Image: Studyflight.com

 

Touchdown!

(A not-so-serious look at the art of landing…)

I’m sure you’ve heard the story about the elderly lady, while disembarking the aircraft asking the captain: “So, sonny, were we shot down or did we crash?”

While everyone wishes for a whistle-smooth touchdown, landing an aircraft is not always guaranteed to turn out like that! All pilots have endured comments from passengers (and sometimes from fellow crewmembers), not always full of admiration or accompanied by applause….

Some comments from passengers can become interesting – especially from the FlightSim boffins, who seem to believe that “flying” a Microsoft aircraft on your desktop would qualify you as an airline captain!

A couple of years ago James May wrote a book called “How to Land an A330 Airbus: And Other Vital Skills for the Modern Man” – I did read it, but was not left much the wiser for it. (It was a bit tongue-in-cheek, though).

Should you be one of the interested parties asking whether such a FlightSim expert, or reader of May’s book could land an airliner – the answer is no.
This book- or internet-trained novice would probably get it on the ground, but it certainly wouldn’t be pretty…

The bottom line is that, once airborne, the pilot’s primary task is to land the aircraft – hopefully on time, hopefully at the intended destination and hopefully in one piece. As the saying goes – taking off is optional, while landing is mandatory. Or, you should try to keep your number of landings equal to your take-offs… (Apparently this is due to an adaptation of one of Newton’s laws).

And this is where the black art of landing requires lots of training, but above all, lots of experience.

No two landings are exactly the same. Conditions differ – temperatures, wind directions and -speeds, precipitation, airport elevations, runway conditions, aircraft weights, ATC instructions – these are only a few of the many variable factors differing from one landing to the next.

Different aircraft also call for different techniques. During ab-initio training pilots are all taught where to look, how to control speed and attitude to achieve that smooth return to terra firma – but we all soon learn that while the basics do apply, aircraft can be fickle and devious!

Taildraggers differ from tricycle-gear aircraft, props and jets are different, even variants of the same type can differ.

Way back when I was still flying Pitts Specials, we used to joke that if you saw the runway, you knew you were off it. (Our aerobatic base did have a very narrow runway – but the Pitts is a very short-coupled tail-dragger with a narrow undercarriage, and once in the three-point attitude all foward vision disappears).

Highly modified, very capable, tricky to land – my old S-1S.

Similarly, although the B737 Classics and NG aircraft are all recognised as 737’s – they actually differ enough to require slightly different techniques for landing. For the new Max-8 Boeing even had to introduce software to change the “feel” of the aircaft to approximate that of a -800 on approach and during landing.

Mastering all of these techniques to the point where it becomes pure muscle memory is probably the Holy Grail for pilots. Any honest pilot will attest to the fact that a series of textbook landings (sometimes for weeks on end), will inevitably end with a rather forgettable arrival at some stage.

And while pilots would rather forget that one indiscretion – that would be the one to stick in passengers’ collective memory!

(I have only discussed fixed-wing landings so far – helicopters are sufficiently different to warrant a separate article!)

In Hollywood you’re only as good as your last movie – somehow it would appear that it could hold true for pilots as well: You’re only as good as your last landing!

(From 47 Years in Aviation, by Richard L. Taylor)

 

Hindsight – The most exact science..

Today marks the 30th anniversary of the Kegworth air disaster – a crash which has since become a standard in CRM classes.

The story is well-known: Blade failure on the number one engine resulted in the pilots mis-diagnosing the problem, shutting down the number two engine instead. This led to the disastrous outcome, costing 47 of the 118 passengers their lives, with 74 people suffering serious injuries. 

Airways Magazine today published an Op-Ed about it, which singles out one of the major lessons learnt – because of the subsequent research into effective brace positions, safety cards and crew briefings, major changes were made to the way passengers are taught to brace for impact. (Click on the link).

However, in total more than thirty-one recommendations were made in the accident report, many of them then became binding for manufacturers and operators. 

While many factors were at play here – and we use many of them in our initial courses as examples of absent CRM – to me one of the most interesting factors is the (then) new CFM-56 engine. These engines were reasonably new in 1989, only being operated on a commercial jet for the first time in 1981. The B737-400 was also a new aircraft, first operated in September 1988. The accident airframe, G-OBME, was only delivered to British Midlands in October 1988 – two-and-a-half months before the crash. 

The CFM-56 used on the -400 was an uprated version of the engine used on the earlier -300 variant. (The -300 was launched in 1984). 

To uprate the -300 engine from 20 000 pounds of thrust to the 23 500 required for the slightly larger -400 required only an electronic chip to increase the N1 (RPM). However, this modification was never tested in the air, only on a test rig, before being certified for use on the -400. Unknown to the manufacturer and operators, blade stall became a problem above 10 000 feet and this was what eventually resulted in the blade failure on the accident aircraft.

The problem was easily rectified, and the CFM-56 is now probably one of the most reliable engines ever built. 

However, it took an accident to lead to this improvement.

Too often this is the case. We learn from each accident and try to understand all the factors involved – in an attempt to avoid similar accidents occurring. But all to soon, it would appear, we become complacent about those lessons learnt – and only yet another crash leads us to question whether we’ve actually learnt anything at all!

Debris from the crashed B738-Max being recovered.

Take, for instance, the recent crash of a LionAir B738-Max – to my mind also caused by a design change which caught everyone by surprise. (Although the previous crew to fly the doomed aircraft experienced the same problem, they had the resilience to recover the aircraft by reverting to good old manual flight). However, without the knowledge about the potential problems associated with the MCAS system, the accident crew were clearly confused by the malfunctioning automation and were unable to regain control. 

To my knowledge the British Midland crews had been operating B737-200 aircraft before, and only attended classroom differences training before flying the -400. As someone who has flown many of the variants, ranging from the 737-Basic to the B738, I know that the only way to convert from the -200 to the -400 would be proper simulator training – they are quite different aircraft. This lack of training could well have been another link in the Kegworth accident chain.

And now pilots were once again expected to convert to a new B737 model with a little classroom video and a CBT test. 

It would appear to me that we’re not inventing new ways to crash, we’re simply repeating the same mistakes over again.

In the same breath I must add that we have certainly come a long way since the Kegworth disaster. The recently published accident statistics bear testimony to the fact we are on a sustained downward trend, and flying is in fact safer than ever.

It’s just such a pity that we always have to remember accidents like Kegworth, to remind ourselves of the potential for disaster.