Nobody should die in an aircraft during peacetime…

That’s a quote we often use during CRM training.

For a number of years most airline pilots used to be former Air Force pilots. Many of whom managed a seamless and successful transition to civilian flying. The numbers of ex-military civilian pilots may have dwindled, but many still make that transition.

During two decades of Human Factors training, I have also encountered the military “mission attitude” – and spent many hours explaining that an airline schedule does not have to be kept at all costs!

Jay Rayner’s book “Stardust Falling” is a very worthwhile read, telling the sad story of a military mindset, which killed too many innocent civilians.

Fortunately, aviation has come a long way since those postwar days – when the Captain’s word was treated as Gospel.

I can recommend this article from Flight Safety Australia, which looks at Bennet’s unfortunate, unenviable and simply sad history.

The Time has Come

The time has come,' the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of shoes — and ships — and sealing-wax —
Of cabbages — and kings —
And why the sea is boiling hot —
And whether pigs have wings.'
        (The Walrus and the Carpenter – Lewis Carroll)

Life is all about choices – so the old cliché goes. One could choose life as a self-determined destiny, or as a predestined, no-control condition – or as a condition and conclusion decided by others. This external control choice is what the poor oysters who ended up on the buttered bread had exercised. (Carroll’s poem, from “Through the Looking Glass” speaks about a walrus and a carpenter who trick innocent young oysters and eat them after a walk on the seashore).

However, the human condition is inexorably linked to the inevitable passage of time. One of the benefits of this countdown, is that with age comes experience and (hopefully) some wisdom. In Carroll’s poem the eldest oyster decided not to follow, while the younger ones went off to meet their doom…

So, how important is age? Popular literature portrays age as “just a number”, but in flying, unlike most other occupations, the decision about when you should be put out to pasture is not your own. A preset age, arbitrarily determined by regulators (presumably with some input from actuaries quoting statistics) renders one quite suddenly incapable of commanding an airliner. This after a pilot has twice a year, for many years, proved his or her capability to regulator and airline, flew the line without mishap and could still pass a Class 1 medical without any problems.

However, where the young oysters could not foresee the end, at least pilots are pre-warned and thus prepared for the event.

Just not this time…

Suffice to say that COVID-19 has decimated the aviation industry, and all too many articles have already been written about it.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce described it as ‘the worst crisis the aviation industry has gone through’. United Airlines chief executive Oscar Munoz has called it ‘the most disruptive global crisis in the history of aviation’.

Around the world, 22 major airlines have gone into bankruptcy or administration. Manufacturers and operators including Airbus, Rolls-Royce, British Airways, Ryanair and Qantas announced job cuts totalling tens of thousands. Fortune magazine estimated 670,000 aviation jobs had disappeared by June 2020. With 92 per cent of its fleet on the ground, Lufthansa put 80,000 of its 130,000 workforce on shortened hours.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says air transport is likely to witness a dive in revenue of 55 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019. IATA expects the resulting slump to lead to 32 million job losses

Worldwide, many pilots are retiring early or accepting severance packages. Many more are simply leaving the industry, possibly never to return – pilots possess many interchangeable skills which could be used in miriads of other fields.

Some have had the misfortune of living with no pay during lockdown, now possibly returning to fly a reduced schedule for a shrinking airline and with severely reduced remuneration packages.

Others suddenly found themselves out in the cold – having reached that disqualifying age during the pandemic. Months without income suddenly followed by “retirement”.

“Not too bad”, I hear you say – and you’re correct. It is indeed better than many others’ circumstances. But is is still sad for senior pilots not to have any say in the matter, not to have had the planned run-up to the final flight and the goodbyes.

For those of that certain age it becomes a case of dealing with retirement investments and financial advisors – who all resemble the walrus and the carpenter – presenting a rosy picture while planning to have you on buttered bread…

The eldest Oyster looked at him,
But never a word he said;
The eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head—
Meaning to say he did not choose
To leave the oyster-bed.

Forty years of flying have taught me this: Given the time and thought required, the storm will clear and the emergency can be resolved. And it requires the patience and resilience of the eldest oyster.

Just like this oyster – who remained put – the secret is to await the next high tide. That high tide will inevitably arrive, recede and arrive again. With it will come the vision of fresh waves to wash away the grit and sand, providing new nutrients and yet another opportunity to grow.

The time has come, to talk of many things… and about where to next.

The Challenge of Leadership

Motor racing has fascinated me since boyhood. (Many years ago I even raced an Alfa Romeo myself – albeit not very successfully!)

In particular I’ve followed Formula One – especially the longest lasting F1 team, Ferrari, which I’ve followed since the days of Chris Amon and Jacky Ickx.

Chris Amon(NZL) Ferrari 312. Dutch Grand Prix, Zandvoort, Holland, 23 June 1968.

Being one of the “Tifosi” meant that I’ve despaired about the team’s misfortunes over the last few years. Since the glory days of Michael Schumacher, with team bosses Jean Todt, Ross Brawn and the South African designer Rory Byrne, Ferrari was on a downward spiral, with their last World Championship more than a decade ago, in 2007 with Kimi Raikkonen.

Since the advent of the hybrid era, Ferrari seemed to be an also-ran. Until 2018, when all of a sudden they had a competitive car and looked like a winning team.

For a while.

Then the wheels came off and Sebastian Vettel looked startled and out-of-sorts, making all sorts of (for him) silly mistakes. The team’s strategists seemed to fumble from one blunder to the next and Ferrari eventually had to settle for second best.

How are Ferrari’s F1 woes relevant to aviation? The answer is: Leadership.

As we celebrate the 10th anniversary of the “Miracle on the Hudson” landing – where Captain Sully Sullenberger’s leadership skills were as much on display as were his flying skills – the captain’s duty to build a team around him is pertinent.

15 January 2009

On reading Will Buxton’s opinion piece about Mauritzio Arrivabene’s demise, one has to draw some parallels to the airline captain’s responsibility for ensuring a successful and safe team.

“Arrivabene’s rule by fear fractured his team and ultimately failed his employers” rings true to many failed leadership issues in aviation as well.

What is it that sets good leaders apart from the also-rans?

There are many academic definitions and as many popular quotes from people like Richard Branson, Alan Mulally (Boeing GM for the B777 project and later CEO of the Ford Company) among others.

On analysis, two words pop up repeatedly: Trust and Respect. Two attributes which Ferrari’s Arrivabene could not claim – and it cost him the prized position after four seasons.

Speaking about Just Culture Job Brüggen, safety officer at LVNL and co-chair of the Eurocontrol Safety Team put it this way:

Everyone wants to be good,
but if people feel the atmosphere could be tending to “blame and shame”,
they become less interested in being good –
they just want to look good.

When people simply cover their own backsides and avoid taking responsibility – look to the leader for the reason.

“The walls, both physical and metaphorical, were quick to go up around the team. But far from creating a safe environment in which the once mighty outfit could rebuild, it appeared that what was being built was a system built on the fear of failure”. This was what Arrivabene did to the once proud Prancing Horse.

The lesson here is simple. To lead implies a two-way agreement – someone leads and others follow. But if the “leader” fails to gain the followers’ trust and respect, he or she can lead all they want – no one will follow.

Is it any surprise that some “leaders” sooner or later find themselves out on their own, without any actual support? Arrivabene learnt this lesson the hard way.

Hopefully Mattia Binotto, the new Team Principal, will know that leadership demands much more than the position and the authority. It demands an attitude – something special, which allows people to follow the vision of their leader.

Hopefully the Scuderia will benefit and become winners again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jet Upset: Not a Good Tabloid Headline…

wwi_plane_in_a_tree_small_poster

I think its time again to haul out this sad picture, which hangs in just about every flight school or ops office and which has served to warn generations of new pilots about the perils of flying with the wrong attitude.

The recent loss of an AirAsia Airbus A320 serves as an example: The accident investigation board cited a solder crack in a circuit board as a causal factor – it did indeed set off a number of events which clearly caught the pilots unaware, but the major cause was the pilots’ inability to recognise their aircraft’s departure from the intended flight path – and their “incapacity” to recover from that upset, potentially due to a mixture of “carelessness and neglect”.

Flight path management is the pilots’ primary task. There are obviously other tasks to be accomplished (navigation, weather avoidance, radio work and a myriad others) but controlling the aircraft’s current and projected trajectory by way of energy management remains the most important.

What the recent AirAsia crash and that of Air France 447 a while ago clearly illustrate, is that we need a different training approach to avoid pilots losing control in flight. LOCI (Loss of Control in Flight) has become the major cause of aircraft accidents. (Review the below graphic from Boeing’s latest annual Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft):

CRM Acc Stats 15

It tells me that pilots would rather leave the flying to computers and autopilots, while they fiddle with circuit breakers and try to figure out “what this thing is doing now”.

It would appear that the captain of AirAsia 8501 was out of his seat to pull circuit breakers without consideration of the consequences and when the Airbus went into “alternate law” the FO could not accomplish the basic recovery from a stall event at altitude. (The same problem the pilots of AF447 had over the Atlantic Ocean).

High altitude flying comes with its own set of problems. I won’t bore you with the definitions of “coffin corner”, but at high altitude aircraft have three possible limitations: Certified altitude, Thrust Limit Altitude, and Buffet or Maneuvre Margin.

On the B738 I fly, thrust is usually the most limiting factor, as at altitude you may find that you have insufficient thrust for anything but relatively minor maneuvering. The Boeing FCTM (Flight Crew Training Manual) clearly states: “Flight crews intending to operate at or near the maximum operating altitude should be familiar with the performance characteristics of the airplane in these conditions.” 

The fancy FMC (Flight Management Computer) will provide you with a limited bank angle which won’t exceed the current available thrust limit, only if you’re operating in LNAV (Lateral Navigation) mode. In any other mode – and this is what many pilots miss – you need to maintain your own speed at least 10kts above the lower buffet limit and use a maximum of 10 degrees of bank. Should you run into the thrust limit, you can only reduce bank angle, increase thrust to max continuous, or descend (or all three).

Which all goes to show that at those altitudes the potential for control loss is very high.

In a recent blog, David Learmount ( http://www.Learmount.com ) stated that in 18 control loss accidents since the year 2000 almost 2000 people lost their lives. That is simply unacceptable. Crashing an aircraft which, despite some technical issues, is fully flyable, is an indictment of our pilots’ level of training and expertise.

It is not the jet that gets upset – it has no emotion in this regard. It is the pilots who should be the last barrier of redundancy, but who are failing by causing the jet upset.

 

Is there anyone on board who can Fly?

The recent death of a pilot while in flight has seen a flurry of reaction. An American Airlines A320, Flight 550 was en route from Phoenix to Boston, but diverted to Syracuse when the captain became ill. Media reaction ranged from declaring the co-pilot a hero to posing questions about the medical condition of pilots.

So what are the actual chances of a pilot becoming incapacitated? By all accounts the chances are reasonably good – after all, pilots are subject to the normal range of human afflictions, ranging from simple colds to food poisoning and heart attacks. However, while trying to find some stats on incapacitation I could not find any record of pilot incapacitation on a commercial airliner which resulted in an accident. Neither could I find any of a double or simultaneous incapacitation – the chances of which must be so remote as to be negligible.

So I’m afraid that all the Microsoft Sim pilots who are ready for the call to duty when they board a commercial flight may well never receive that call!

In fact, the remote possibility of pilot incapacitation should not be a concern to passengers at all.

Air crew are well trained for such events and either pilot would be able to continue or divert the flight and land safely. In fact, one of our final line checks for new command upgrades is a “solo” flight, where the instructor captain becomes “incapacitated”.

In a real life situation the cabin crew’s role as safety officers also becomes clear. They are well trained in providing emergency first aid. They would also assist in moving the incapacitated pilot’s seat far back and to restrain him/her from interfering with controls. If necessary and if time allows the pilot could even be removed from the cockpit. Cabin crew members are furthermore trained to assist pilots with checklists and radio selection, which would lighten the workload in a single pilot diversion, approach and landing.

However, this rather non-event scenario would obviously not suit Hollywood! In fact, a quick Google search reveals at least ten movies with pilots in distress and some rock-jawed passenger-hero saving the day. Let’s be honest, you have to be at least Charlton Heston or Harrison Ford (or Lauren Holly – remember “Turbulence”?) to pull off such an incredible feat!

Lauren Holly
Lauren Holly in Turbulence.

My particular worst scenes of impossible wishful thinking were in Airport ’77 with Jack Lemmon telling pax in the B747 on the seabed that they’d be OK, as the aircraft is pressurised!

Jack Lemmon
Jack Lemmon in Airport ’77.

Airport 77
Wishful thinking!

Or what about the rappelling between aircraft in “Air Force One” – only in Hollywood!

airforceone_02
C-130 and B747 formo in” Air Force One”.

Now the question a number of people have asked me: Could a non-pilot land a commercial aircraft?

I think it is highly unlikely that it would result in a successful landing – with lots of patter and assistance (provided the radio frequencies are set up correctly) a non-pilot would probably manage to position the aircraft near an airport, using the various automated systems. He or she could possibly even configure it for an autoland, should conditions allow – unfortunately any out of limits situation may well disengage the autopilots. However, manually executing a landing would probably result in severe damage and possible loss of life. Let’s face it, unless you were trained for this, gently placing many of tons of metal onto a very narrow piece of tarmac at speeds of around 250 km/h will take some doing!

Fortunately we do not have to worry about such Hollywood scenarios. Rather enjoy the flight and trust that your pilots are well rested, well fed and healthy!

Featured Pic: Getty Images. Other Pics: Movie Promo Material