100 Days and Counting.

Last time I was counting down at 50 days, and here we are past 100 days – still under lockdown, albeit with the somewhat more accommodating regulations of Level 3.

As discussed in my last blog, we are indeed now seeing a return to flying. It may be much reduced and restricted, but at least there is some movement. Many industry experts and organisations have speculated on just how long it would take for commercial aviation to recover, but rather than commit to forecasts, I will adopt a wait and see attitude. I’m reminded of Warren Buffet’s quip: “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, they tell you nothing about the future”.

What caught my attention during this period are peoples’ attitudes about the COVID-19 pandemic. One only has to look at social media posts to witness the stupid and boorish behaviour of many citizens around the world – the woman throwing groceries around or the man shouting abuse at shop assistants – instances where the issue was their refusal to wear masks, despite the clear rules at shop entrances stating “No mask – No Entry”.

Psychologists are quick to point out the reasons for such behaviour – just Google the psychological reasons for not wearing masks: You’ll be inundated with reasons ranging from denial to feeling powerless to political influence, mixed messages and psychotic or sociopathic behaviour.

All fair and well, but how are we dealing with the current situation in aviation?

Face facts, being a pilot currently is not a great occupation. All over the world airlines are laying off pilots – Emirates, Delta, Qantas, Air France, Air Mauritius – you name them, pilots are out of work everywhere. Expats are stuck with borders closed, households suddenly have no income – the situation is dire.

Now, to paraphrase Warren Buffet’s quote: Handling of a crisis will tell you more about the pilot than about the outcome.

I recently read a blog by pilot and author, Owen Zupp, who was laid off by Qantas (read HERE). While the business world and twitter experts are sprouting forth about resilience, here is a quiet example. Similarly, I recently met with a fellow Captain who had to sell his house, because they couldn’t keep up the bond repayments – yet this was done with almost stoic acceptance, dealing with the situation at hand in the most reasonable way. Just by way of explanation, crews in my company (as in many others) have been on unpaid leave since the beginning of lockdown. With no profitable flying possible for the foreseeable future, with licenses and currency now lapsed, it means proper crisis management to simply survive.

Shouting and screaming has never solved any problem – and professional pilots are trained to deal with crisis situations methodically and logically.

Thus  I found a recent webinar for GA pilots rather disconcerting.

While other people are dealing with life-and-death situations, some private pilots (and, sorry to say, some career pilots too) exhibited the same selfish and negative behaviour we see in the social media posts referred to earlier. Flaunting laws and regulations, threatening civil disobedience, using foul language – these are not traits one would expect of pilots behaving professionally. Abusing the hard-working volunteers, who actively are engaging with the CAA and other relevant departments to achieve the phased opening of recreational and sport aviation, while clearly showing a lack of knowledge and procedures, being totally ignorant of where to find NOTAMs and other relevant information – frankly, it leads me to question whether people exhibiting these negative behaviours should be allowed near an aircraft at all! .

Here we see some of the well known hazardous attitudes:

  • Anti-authority,
  • Impulsivity,
  • Invulnerability,
  • Macho, and
  • Resignation,
  • most obviously the anti-authority, invulnerability and macho attitudes.

These attitudes simply do not belong in a safe aviation environment. That is why highly experienced airline pilots now have to undergo three days of ground school and two days of simulator training before being allowed near an airliner – because they understand the associated risks and know that regulations and SOP’s are there for a reason.

Should one find regulations unreasonable or illogical, there are professional ways to bring about change. Until such time, professionals follow the rules.

I’m one of the very happy motor racing fans who are watching the first actual 2020 Grand Prix this weekend. Aviation can take a leaf from the F1 book on how to deal with the epidemic – essentially follow the published rules or you simply won’t be allowed near the track.

Simon Lazenby, Jenson Button and Martin Brundle social distancing while commentating on the Austrian GP qualifying.

The potential risks associated with not adhering to the rules for the new reality are just too great for this multi-million dollar sport – so no deviance is tolerated. And in F1 we are also dealing with strong A-type personalities, so no excuses for aviation!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50 Days and Counting

“I’m gonna give you Forty Days” sang Cliff Richard all those years ago. But we have not made it back yet – and forty days have come and gone.

Cliff

Fifty days – that’s how long we’ve now been under lockdown in South Africa.

For aircrew this could spell a multitude of problems, not least of which is the fact that most pilots and cabin crew are currently on unpaid leave. This loss of income has severe ramifications for many and it cannot be sustained for much longer.

That aside – despite the SACAA’s extension of licenses and ratings to the end of June, other implications could be as severe.

Among these is the requirement for recency and currency –  some airlines require a check-flight after 30 days without flying. Problem is, check-captains and instructors need the same, so they would have to regain currency in the simulator before doing any check-flying.

This may not be as easy as it sounds – we currently have no idea when flying will be allowed again and at what level. We can only assume that moving to Level 3 restrictions would allow for training and very restricted flights. But, should the nightly 20h00 – 05h00 curfew remain in place, (which appears to be the case under Level 3 restrictions), just imagine trying to schedule all training only during daylight hours – bearing in mind travel time before and after such simulator sessions. For airlines without their own simulators, finding and hiring time on simulators may initially be almost impossible – potentially delaying their return to training. Remember that the closed borders currently restrict international travel, which means that only local simulators (of which there are not that many) may be available.

Hopefully the restrictions on flying and flight training will not last another 40 days, at which stage the 90 day recency and currency regulations would mean that every airline pilot would have to do a simulator session before even touching an aircraft.

When we finally do start flying, albeit limited in frequency and routes, stored aircaft would have to be brought out of mothballs, checked, signed out and possibly test flown before doing any commercial flights. This could turn into a lengthy process.

Looking at IATA’s projections for the recovery of commercial aviation, we’re in for a long and slow recovery.

Interestingly enough, IATA proposes that social distancing would be impossible on aircraft. While we know that aircraft aircon systems use HEPA filters, which are similar to those used in hospital operating theatres, it appears that the travelling public is quite suspicious of its efficiency.

What is clear is that for the foreseeable future airline flying will never be the same again.

Sanitising and deep cleaning between flights will become routine, adding time and costs. Wearing of face-masks in airports and on aircraft may become compulsory – crews may look like ICU nurses.

PPE
Phillipines cabin crew in their designer PPE wear.

During flight, passengers’ movement could be restricted – you may well have to “reserve a slot” to use the toilet…

Catering could be another no-no, especially on shorter flights – locally the longest flights are only two hours in duration. On longer flights catering could be pre-packaged and sealed – fancy first-class fare could well be a thing of the past.

Eventually it would boil down to passengers being adult and taking responsibility for their own protection and health.

As for how – and more importantly, when we can expect to get airborne again – the mixed and opaque messages from goverment are not particularly helpful in this regard.

Play it by ear is the only song on our current aviation hit parade – and we’re in it for The long Run!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘Pilots are losing their basic flying skills’

We’ve heard this argument many times over the past decades. The concept states that automation has made flying safer, but that it has reduced pilots to computer operators, who can no longer hand-fly their aircraft.

It has now surfaced again in the aftermath of the two deadly Max crashes – raised here in this USA Today article . One of the very experienced pilots quoted in the article is John Cox, who argues that training should concentrate more on manual flying skills than what currently is the case.

I found that this may well link to a recent article published by Flight Safety Australia, summarising the final report on the crash of a Diamond DA40 in September 2017. At issue here is the fact that the DA40 is not approved for intentional spins – and the instructor and student were killed when they spun in.

Now – when we talk about flying skills, initial training teaches the basics required to take off and land, fly straight and level, climb and descend and to turn the aircraft. There are lessons on stalling and then incipient spins – but it would appear that most of the new LSA (Light Sport Aircraft) often used as trainers are not approved for spins or even incipient spins.

Most of the older, more traditional all-metal trainers (before them even the rag-and-tube aircraft) were approved for spinning and spins used to be part of the training curriculum. But this changed a quite while ago, when the FAA and then our local CAA decided that pilots don’t need spin training: If they understood what the causes of spins are, they would avoid spins – that’s if I understand the logic of their decisions correctly.

How does this have any bearing on crashing airliners?

A recurring theme in recent crash investigations appears to be a dearth of experience in the cockpit. I’m not inferring that lack of experience points to crash-prone pilots – far from it. But it does indicate that most of the newer pilots would have been trained under the new regulations, which do not require spinning. This leads me to suspect that most of these newer pilots have never had any proper unusual attitude and recovery training – in simple terms it points to a lack of hands-on flying experience. Not their fault, but that of a system that allows young instructors – who themselves have never spun an aircraft and are actually afraid of simple stalls – to teach our future airline pilots. (Back to the point raised in the USA Today article).

When I was still involved in ab-initio training, (many moons ago) some of the younger instructors would ask me to take their students for the lessons on stalls and incipient spins. (My aerobatic background apparently made me the obvious candidate). My answer would be to rather take the instructor up to experience the joy of flying an aircraft to any attitude and still remain in control – but time and money did not always allow.

Added to this, the prohibition of spins in modern “glass” aircraft remains a serious hurdle. Even the great Cirrus range of aircraft, in which many new South African pilots are being trained, is not certified for spins.

The answer would be for any student to spend some money and time on unusual attitude training in a spin-capable aircraft. This would probably have to be an aerobatic machine, but such courses are available. Those hands-on skills will enhance their flying and build confidence.

That confidence could serve pilots well when, in their later careers they’re suddenly faced with an unusual situation. Airline training simply teaches procedures, which work extremely well – but for those unexpected upsets, nothing beats simple stick-and-rudder skills.

Featured Image: Studyflight.com

 

Touchdown!

(A not-so-serious look at the art of landing…)

I’m sure you’ve heard the story about the elderly lady, while disembarking the aircraft asking the captain: “So, sonny, were we shot down or did we crash?”

While everyone wishes for a whistle-smooth touchdown, landing an aircraft is not always guaranteed to turn out like that! All pilots have endured comments from passengers (and sometimes from fellow crewmembers), not always full of admiration or accompanied by applause….

Some comments from passengers can become interesting – especially from the FlightSim boffins, who seem to believe that “flying” a Microsoft aircraft on your desktop would qualify you as an airline captain!

A couple of years ago James May wrote a book called “How to Land an A330 Airbus: And Other Vital Skills for the Modern Man” – I did read it, but was not left much the wiser for it. (It was a bit tongue-in-cheek, though).

Should you be one of the interested parties asking whether such a FlightSim expert, or reader of May’s book could land an airliner – the answer is no.
This book- or internet-trained novice would probably get it on the ground, but it certainly wouldn’t be pretty…

The bottom line is that, once airborne, the pilot’s primary task is to land the aircraft – hopefully on time, hopefully at the intended destination and hopefully in one piece. As the saying goes – taking off is optional, while landing is mandatory. Or, you should try to keep your number of landings equal to your take-offs… (Apparently this is due to an adaptation of one of Newton’s laws).

And this is where the black art of landing requires lots of training, but above all, lots of experience.

No two landings are exactly the same. Conditions differ – temperatures, wind directions and -speeds, precipitation, airport elevations, runway conditions, aircraft weights, ATC instructions – these are only a few of the many variable factors differing from one landing to the next.

Different aircraft also call for different techniques. During ab-initio training pilots are all taught where to look, how to control speed and attitude to achieve that smooth return to terra firma – but we all soon learn that while the basics do apply, aircraft can be fickle and devious!

Taildraggers differ from tricycle-gear aircraft, props and jets are different, even variants of the same type can differ.

Way back when I was still flying Pitts Specials, we used to joke that if you saw the runway, you knew you were off it. (Our aerobatic base did have a very narrow runway – but the Pitts is a very short-coupled tail-dragger with a narrow undercarriage, and once in the three-point attitude all foward vision disappears).

Highly modified, very capable, tricky to land – my old S-1S.

Similarly, although the B737 Classics and NG aircraft are all recognised as 737’s – they actually differ enough to require slightly different techniques for landing. For the new Max-8 Boeing even had to introduce software to change the “feel” of the aircaft to approximate that of a -800 on approach and during landing.

Mastering all of these techniques to the point where it becomes pure muscle memory is probably the Holy Grail for pilots. Any honest pilot will attest to the fact that a series of textbook landings (sometimes for weeks on end), will inevitably end with a rather forgettable arrival at some stage.

And while pilots would rather forget that one indiscretion – that would be the one to stick in passengers’ collective memory!

(I have only discussed fixed-wing landings so far – helicopters are sufficiently different to warrant a separate article!)

In Hollywood you’re only as good as your last movie – somehow it would appear that it could hold true for pilots as well: You’re only as good as your last landing!

(From 47 Years in Aviation, by Richard L. Taylor)

 

The Challenge of Leadership

Motor racing has fascinated me since boyhood. (Many years ago I even raced an Alfa Romeo myself – albeit not very successfully!)

In particular I’ve followed Formula One – especially the longest lasting F1 team, Ferrari, which I’ve followed since the days of Chris Amon and Jacky Ickx.

Chris Amon(NZL) Ferrari 312. Dutch Grand Prix, Zandvoort, Holland, 23 June 1968.

Being one of the “Tifosi” meant that I’ve despaired about the team’s misfortunes over the last few years. Since the glory days of Michael Schumacher, with team bosses Jean Todt, Ross Brawn and the South African designer Rory Byrne, Ferrari was on a downward spiral, with their last World Championship more than a decade ago, in 2007 with Kimi Raikkonen.

Since the advent of the hybrid era, Ferrari seemed to be an also-ran. Until 2018, when all of a sudden they had a competitive car and looked like a winning team.

For a while.

Then the wheels came off and Sebastian Vettel looked startled and out-of-sorts, making all sorts of (for him) silly mistakes. The team’s strategists seemed to fumble from one blunder to the next and Ferrari eventually had to settle for second best.

How are Ferrari’s F1 woes relevant to aviation? The answer is: Leadership.

As we celebrate the 10th anniversary of the “Miracle on the Hudson” landing – where Captain Sully Sullenberger’s leadership skills were as much on display as were his flying skills – the captain’s duty to build a team around him is pertinent.

15 January 2009

On reading Will Buxton’s opinion piece about Mauritzio Arrivabene’s demise, one has to draw some parallels to the airline captain’s responsibility for ensuring a successful and safe team.

“Arrivabene’s rule by fear fractured his team and ultimately failed his employers” rings true to many failed leadership issues in aviation as well.

What is it that sets good leaders apart from the also-rans?

There are many academic definitions and as many popular quotes from people like Richard Branson, Alan Mulally (Boeing GM for the B777 project and later CEO of the Ford Company) among others.

On analysis, two words pop up repeatedly: Trust and Respect. Two attributes which Ferrari’s Arrivabene could not claim – and it cost him the prized position after four seasons.

Speaking about Just Culture Job Brüggen, safety officer at LVNL and co-chair of the Eurocontrol Safety Team put it this way:

Everyone wants to be good,
but if people feel the atmosphere could be tending to “blame and shame”,
they become less interested in being good –
they just want to look good.

When people simply cover their own backsides and avoid taking responsibility – look to the leader for the reason.

“The walls, both physical and metaphorical, were quick to go up around the team. But far from creating a safe environment in which the once mighty outfit could rebuild, it appeared that what was being built was a system built on the fear of failure”. This was what Arrivabene did to the once proud Prancing Horse.

The lesson here is simple. To lead implies a two-way agreement – someone leads and others follow. But if the “leader” fails to gain the followers’ trust and respect, he or she can lead all they want – no one will follow.

Is it any surprise that some “leaders” sooner or later find themselves out on their own, without any actual support? Arrivabene learnt this lesson the hard way.

Hopefully Mattia Binotto, the new Team Principal, will know that leadership demands much more than the position and the authority. It demands an attitude – something special, which allows people to follow the vision of their leader.

Hopefully the Scuderia will benefit and become winners again.